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Just days after the official start of summer, the National Weather Service released the drought summary for New Mexico with the heartening headline: "Drought lessening its grip on New Mexico."
This calendar year, precipitation has been 161 percent of the normal statewide average and is the ninth wettest on record since the 1800s, according to Brian Guyer, senior meteorologist with National Weather Service office in Albuquerque. Predictions are for above normal precipitation through September, particularly in the northeastern half of the state.
"In 2013, we saw more than half the state was under exceptional drought conditions, and then we've been very slowly working improvements through last year, and then finally this year, we're seeing above normal precipitation across the majority of the state, so that's alleviating the drought conditions in the short term," Guyer says.
The US Drought Monitor estimates that 22 percent of the state is in moderate to severe drought and 4 percent of the state in severe drought, the bulk of which is spread over the western half of the state. The driest areas sit right on the border in McKinley, Cibola, Catron and Grant counties. Drought conditions have eased in the eastern plains and central portion of the state. The western side of Santa Fe County, and much of the state west of it, are still classified as abnormally dry.
"Especially once we get into the monsoon period, I think they'll probably be removing severe drought conditions from that last holdout in western New Mexico next week," Guyer says. "If conditions continue like this, then we probably will put all of New Mexico out of drought in the short term."
Above-normal snowpack arrived at the start of the year, and January reported 180 percent of normal precipitation, though the bulk of it missed the northern mountains and their ski areas. Snowpack continued near normal in the Sangre de Cristo, San Juan and Jemez mountains through February. March 1 saw about 70 percent of normal snowpack—not necessarily poor, but not great, either.
High temperatures in the first half of April brought an early end to the snowpack, but rain and snow hit southeastern and northern portions of the state. May saw almost daily rains, with precipitation levels sometimes 300 to 400 percent of average. The precipitation was enough to trigger flash flooding in some areas of the eastern plains, where some areas reported 4 to 7 inches of rainfall for the month, clearing drought conditions from that portion of the state. June saw May's trend continue, with more rain hitting the Four Corners area. The cumulative effect has slowed down wildfire season.
Stream flows in many areas throughout the state are reporting normal or above-normal flows, and there are at present no fire restrictions for federal, state or tribal lands, though the Red Canyon fire has closed some of the forest roads in the Magdalena Ranger District. Increased water in creeks and rivers may improve conditions for some endangered species, like the silvery minnow, Guyer says.
Warming in the Pacific Ocean caused by El Niño takes some of the credit for the positive trend, and as long as El Niño stays in place, it can be expected to continue creating hurricanes over the Pacific that channel through the Southwest as far as the Oklahoma Panhandle, delivering moisture along the way. That could potentially bring another six to nine months of wetter, perhaps even cooler weather to New Mexico, says Mark Svoboda, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center, though the forecast isn't a promise.
“Maybe that will help to continue to help the surface water situation and eventually even the groundwater situation in New Mexico and surrounding states,” Svoboda says. “Those are the last things to recover from drought, so it might look green on the surface, but an important part of the drought recovery is still that groundwater and reservoir situation. Those two things are the last to typically go into drought, and they’re typically the last to come out. So I think once we get to that point where you really start to see improvement in Elephant Butte and other large reservoir bodies, then you can feel much more optimistic about drought recovery in the next six months.”
Reservoirs in the state are still low, their statewide average hovering at 29 percent on June 1, according to Guyer. Bringing those reservoirs back up to capacity will take some better snowpack through the winter months.
"Folks should still keep in mind that just because we're going through a wetter period right now doesn't mean it's not going to get dry again, so conservation is still really important," Guyer says.
The outlook doesn't look as good for states to the west; drought is expected to linger, and perhaps even intensify, in Arizona, Utah, Nevada, California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington, as it habitually does during summer months. In the long run, research published in the journal Science Advances in February predicts increased drought severity for the Southwest in decades to come, perhaps even to more extreme levels than the medieval-era drought said to drive many of the Anasazi to relocate.
"Our results point to a remarkably drier future that falls far outside the contemporary experience of natural and human systems in Western North America, conditions that may present a substantial challenge to adaptation," the study's authors write. "Future droughts will occur in a significantly warmer world with higher temperatures than recent historical events, conditions that are likely to be a major added stress on both natural ecosystems and agriculture…Combined with the likelihood of a much drier future and increased demand, the loss of groundwater and higher temperatures will likely exacerbate the impacts of future droughts, presenting a major adaptation challenge for managing ecological and anthropogenic water needs in the region."
Santa Fe Reporter